Latest Macroeconomic trends affecting the Offshoring Industry
In July 2011 I wrote the following economic forecast and got it fairly right I think given the latest vote results in France just last Week End : https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/didnt-i-tell-you-bout-marine-thierry-logiest?trk=mp-author-card
What kind of economic traction will the developed world be able to provide in the coming years ? We argue that anemic growth in the developed world due to delevaraging and a diminishing purchasing power, as a consequence of stagflation, combined with a devaluation of the Dollar and Euro, whilst wage inflation in the BRIC continues, will have a strong negative impact on the Offshoring Industry in the developed world.
We see that the debt is but a symptom of the underlying Macroeconomic structural issues affecting Europe and the US, and while this problem is being tackled on both sides with varying politics ( Inflationary in the US and Deflationary in the Euro zone ), the real reasons i.e. aging population, poor immigration policy and labor inflexibility are not been tackled due to a democratic grid lock where the privileged segment of the population votes and the other abstains …
We also warn of a political backlash possibly affecting global trade as extreme right movements ( Tea Party in the US and Re-Emerging Nationalism in Europe ) gain increased control.
Possibly this may finally have an impact on the policies of the WTO which up to now have been regulating the commerce of merchandise while ignoring the commerce of services ( Offshoring ) whilst services represent over 75% of the developed world economy and Industry less then 15%.